Hardee CountyET posted a 73.6 percent graduation rate in 2024, the second-lowest in Florida and the worst post-COVID decline of any district in the state.

The 17.8 percentage-point drop from its 2020 peak of 91.4 percent has unfolded in four consecutive years of decline: minus 3.1 in 2021, minus 3.8 in 2022, minus 4.0 in 2023, and minus 6.9 in 2024. Each year has been worse than the last.

What makes the collapse notable is not just its magnitude but its trajectory. Hardee's 2024 rate of 73.6 percent is now below its 2017 level of 72.1 percent. The district did not merely give back gains inflated by COVID waivers. It fell through the floor that existed before the improvements began.

The rise and fall

Hardee County spent 2016 and 2017 in the low 70s, then improved sharply to 80.2 percent in 2018 and 81.2 in 2019. The COVID waiver year of 2020 pushed the rate to 91.4 percent, above the state average for the first and only time.

Since then, the decline has been relentless. While the statewide rate dipped 2.8 points in 2022 before recovering to 89.7 percent by 2024, Hardee kept falling. The gap between Hardee and the state average has widened from 0.6 points above in 2020 to 16.1 points below in 2024.

The 2024 drop of 6.9 points is the sharpest single-year decline Hardee has recorded, suggesting the deterioration is accelerating rather than stabilizing.

The gender dimension

Hardee's male graduation rate has been hit hardest. Male students graduated at 69.3 percent in 2024, a full 18.6 percentage points below the state average for males. Female students at 78.6 percent are also below the state female average of 91.6, but the male shortfall is more severe.

The male rate peaked at 90.2 percent in 2020, meaning it has dropped 20.9 points in four years. The gender gap within Hardee, which had nearly closed to 2.6 points in 2020, has widened back to 9.3 points.

Every subgroup is declining

The FRL graduation rate in Hardee dropped from 89.2 percent in 2020 to 68.2 in 2024, a 21-point decline. ESE students fell from 85.3 to 74.5 percent. ELL students, after a spike to 90 percent in 2022, dropped back to 60 percent in 2024.

No subgroup has been spared. This is not a story of one population dragging down the overall number. The decline is pervasive.

Context

Hardee County is a small, rural district in south-central Florida with a graduating cohort of about 360 students. The economy is dominated by agriculture, cattle ranching, and phosphate mining. The county has a significant migrant worker population.

In a state where 63 of 68 districts improved their graduation rates between 2016 and 2024, Hardee stands out as the worst decliner. Only four other districts are declining from their 2020 rates, and none by more than 13.3 percentage points.

Hardee County did not respond to a request for comment.

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